Day One |
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I. |
Early Morning Session (08:30 - 10:00) |
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1. |
Introduction |
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a) |
Experience and Expertise: background and practice of our professionals |
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b) |
Decision Analysis: evolution as a discipline |
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2. |
Overview |
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a) |
Managing Uncertainties: structured decision-making process in uncertain world |
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b) |
Solution Tool: contributions of Decision Analysis as a problem-solving method |
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II. |
Morning Break (10:00 - 10:15) |
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III. |
Late Morning Session (10:15 - 11:45) |
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1. |
Decision Paradigm |
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a) |
Problem Recognition: identifying issues and scope of decision problem |
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b) |
Pre-analysis Tasks: getting ready to undertake solving decision problem |
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2. |
Quality Decision-making |
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a) |
Public Sector: specific requirements for public-sector decision-making |
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b) |
Challenging Conditions: identifying and addressing key factors |
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IV. |
Lunch Break (11:45 - 13:00) |
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Optional: working lunch -- presenting cases |
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V. |
Early Afternoon Session (13:00 - 14:30) |
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1. |
Framing Step |
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a) |
Complete Layout: qualitative structural analysis of decision problem |
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b) |
Decision Tree: schematic construction of decision problem elements |
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2. |
Structural Considerations |
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a) |
Creating Opportunities: capitalizing on adaptive and process-oriented approach |
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b) |
Decision Context: establishing objectives and alternatives |
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VI. |
Afternoon Break (14:30 - 14:45) |
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VII. |
Late Afternoon Session (14:45 - 16:15) |
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1. |
Understanding Uncertainties |
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a) |
Statistical Principles: abstracting uncertainties in meaningful ways |
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b) |
Applied Methods: using analytical techniques to obtain and assign probabilities |
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2. |
Practical Analysis |
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a) |
Incorporating Judgment: including subjective probabilities in analysis |
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b) |
Collaborative Decision-making: allowing stakeholders to participate in decisions |
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VIII. |
Question-and-Answer/Discussion Session (16:15 - 16:45) |
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Duration: as needed |
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Day Two
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IX. |
Early Morning Session (08:30 - 10:00) |
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1. |
Formal Analysis |
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a) |
Complete Framework: preferences, alternatives, and information for decision model |
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b) |
Maintaining Flexibility: reacting to new risk or opportunity information |
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2. |
Optimizing Process |
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a) |
Generating Solution: algorithmic calculations for determining optimal sequence of actions |
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b) |
Applied Technique: solving by averaging out and folding back |
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X. |
Morning Break (10:00 - 10:15) |
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XI. |
Late Morning Session (10:15 - 11:45) |
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1. |
Evaluating Results |
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a) |
Quality Assurance: ensuring designed performance and validating results |
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b) |
Sensitivity Analysis: identifying critical inputs and assumptions |
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2. |
Risk Management |
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a) |
Defining Risk: establishing complete designation and meaningful description |
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b) |
Uncertain Events: coping with randomness and risk through Decision Analysis |
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XII. |
Lunch Break (11:45 - 13:00) |
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Optional: working lunch -- presenting cases |
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XIII. |
Early Afternoon Session (13:00 - 14:30) |
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1. |
Multiattribute Analysis |
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a) |
Multiple Objectives: identifying and structuring relevant objectives |
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b) |
Advanced Approach: combining diverse measures of value |
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2. |
Formal Prioritization |
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a) |
Resource Allocation: understanding imperative needs to prioritize activities |
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b) |
Systematic Development: presenting key elements, developing steps, and applying results |
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XIV. |
Afternoon Break (14:30 - 14:45) |
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XV. |
Late Afternoon Session (14:45 - 16:15) |
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1. |
New Thinking |
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a) |
Value Focused: creating values for the organization |
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b) |
Defensible Actions: producing informed and reasoned courses of action |
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2. |
Enhanced Performance |
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a) |
Measurable Benefits: increasing effectiveness of decision-making process |
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b) |
Ensure Success: positioning for sweeping gains through commitment to Decision Analysis |
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XVI. |
Question-and-Answer/Discussion Session (16:15 - 16:45) |
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Duration: as needed |
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