I. |
Early Morning Session (08:30 - 10:00) |
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1. |
Introduction |
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a) |
Experience and Expertise: background and practice of our professionals |
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b) |
Decision Analysis: evolution as a discipline |
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2. |
Overview |
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a) |
Managing Uncertainties: structured decision-making process in uncertain world |
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b) |
Solution Tool: contributions of Decision Analysis as a problem-solving method |
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II. |
Morning Break (10:00 - 10:15) |
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III. |
Late Morning Session (10:15 - 11:45) |
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1. |
Decision Paradigm |
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a) |
Problem Recognition: identifying issues and scope of decision problem |
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b) |
Pre-analysis Tasks: getting ready to undertake solving decision problem |
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2. |
Framing Step |
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a) |
Complete Layout: qualitative structural analysis of decision problem |
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b) |
Decision Tree: schematic construction of decision problem elements |
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IV. |
Lunch Break (11:45 - 13:00) |
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Optional: working lunch -- presenting cases |
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V. |
Early Afternoon Session (13:00 - 14:30) |
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1. |
Analyzing Uncertainties |
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a) |
Statistical Principles: abstracting uncertainties in meaningful ways |
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b) |
Applied Methods: using analytical techniques to obtain and assign probabilities |
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2. |
Optimization Process |
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a) |
Generating Solution: algorithmic calculations for determining optimal sequence of actions |
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b) |
Evaluating Results: understanding generated outputs |
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VI. |
Afternoon Break (14:30 - 14:45) |
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VII. |
Late Afternoon Session (14:45 - 16:15) |
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1. |
Advanced Topics |
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a) |
Multiattribute Analysis: complex decision making with multiple objectives |
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b) |
Portfolio Analysis: systematic prioritization for capital resource allocation |
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2. |
Implementation and Usage |
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a) |
New Thinking: better way of decision making for complicated problems |
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b) |
Enhanced Performance: reaping rewards through increased decision quality |
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IV. |
Question-and-Answer/Discussion Session (16:15 - 16:45) |
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Duration: as needed |
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